My 2026 Oscar Predictions
I figured I did so poorly on my Oscar predictions this year for movies I had actually seen, why not take a little shot in the dark and see how I can almost a year in advance. I’m not going to be predicting all 24 categories, just a handful that intrigue me more. Keep in mind I haven’t actually seen a majority of these films because they are either entirely unreleased, or are at least unreleased to the masses. In fact there is only one film on here I have seen, and it’s being here is more wishful thinking than anything. One of the major factors that could affect this list is that some of these films may very well get pushed back out of 2025. I guess we will see. I’ll come back a year from now & see how I did. The last thing I want to say is that I’m excluding movies I’ve done no reading about. I’m sure there are a ton of movies that experts would be putting in this conversation that I’m just not privy to. That being said, most of the films mentioned here will be mentioned a few times.
Best Picture: So I was able to pinpoint 16 movies that I think have a chance in the conversation for Best Picture. The 6 films I didn’t have making the cut were:
Kogonada’s ‘A Big Bold Beautiful Journey’ starring Colin Farrell & Margot Robbie, with other strong actors in the ensemble.
Yorgos Lanthimos’s ‘Bugonia’ starring Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, & Alicia Silverstone. This one is either going to go the way of ‘Poor Things’ or ‘Kinds of Kindness,’ only time will tell.
Guillermo del Toro’s ‘Frankenstein’ starring Oscar Isaac, Jacob Elordi, Mia Goth, & Christoph Waltz. If the Academy continues to lean into dipping it’s toes into the horror genre (with ‘The Substance’ & ‘Nosferatu’ both receiving several nominations) I think this film could get some love.
Noah Baumbach’s ‘Jay Kelly’ starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, Greta Gerwig, & Billy Crudup. This film has been described as a coming-of-age story for adults.
Celine Song’s ‘Materialists’ starring Dakota Johnson, Chris Evans, & Pedro Pascal as a love triangle. While the acting talent brings me some reservations on it getting critical acclaim, Celine Song brings some hope.
Wes Anderson’s ‘The Phoenician Scheme’ starring a huge ensemble because it’s a Wes Anderson movie. I think Anderson’s time to do really well at the Oscars is imminent.
Now the 10 films I think will receive nominations are:
James Cameron’s ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ will continue the trend of the franchise by getting a Best Picture nomination. I’m very confident in this one.
Scott Cooper’s ‘Deliver Me From Nowhere’ starring Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen because every Oscars needs a musician biopic in its race.
Joseph Kosinski’s ‘F1’ starring Brad Pitt. I could see this having a similar arc to ‘Top Gun: Maverick.’
Chloé Zhao’s ‘Hamnet’ starring Jessie Buckley & Paul Mescal. The film tells the story of Shakespeare & his wife losing their son, the titular ‘Hamnet.’ Zhao’s ‘Nomadland’ was a Best Picture winner.
Josh Safdie’s ‘Marty Supreme’ starring Timothée Chalamet. This comedy about a ping pong player has all the right ingredients to be an Oscar darling.
Antoine Fuqua’s ‘Michael’ because 2 musician biopics are better than one.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘One Battle After Another’ which stars Leonardo DiCaprio & Sean Penn. Again, just the right combination.
Benny Safdie’s ‘The Smashing Machine’ starring Dwayne Johnson & Emily Blunt. I think the Safdie Brothers are going to have a GREAT year.
Clint Bentley’s ‘Train Dreams’ starring Joel Edgerton & Felicity Jones. This film was a favorite of many at Sundance 2025.
Jon M. Chu’s ‘Wicked: For Good’ because duh!
I think ‘Wicked: For Good’ will take the prize home.
Best Director: I had 8 contenders for this one, so the three I cut were Scott Cooper (Deliver Me From Nowhere), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), & Celine Song (Materialists). My five nominees would be:
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Jon M. Chu (Wicked: For Good)
Benny Safdie (The Smashing Machine)
Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) Realistically neither of the Safdies will probably make the cut, but I think it would be cool if they both did.
Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
I would predict Anderson taking home the award.
Before we get into the acting awards (those are the most fun for me) I’ll hit on some other categories.
A new category being added for the 98th Academy Awards is Best Casting and since there’s really no trends to follow, this is really a shot in the dark. My five nominees are going to be ‘Deliver Me From Nowhere,’ ‘Frankenstein,’ ‘The Smashing Machine,’ ‘Wake Up Dead Man,’ & ‘Wicked: For Good,’ and I think ‘Wake Up Dead Man,’ the third ‘Knives Out’ film will take it.
As far as the writing awards go, for Best Original Screenplay I’ll go with ‘F1,’ ‘Jay Kelly,’ ‘Marty Supreme,’ ‘The Phoenician Scheme,’ & ‘The Smashing Machine,’ with either ‘The Phoenician Scheme’ or ‘Jay Kelly’ taking it. And for Best Adapted Screenplay I predict ‘Deliver Me From Nowhere,’ ‘Hamnet,’ ‘The Life of Chuck,’ ‘Mickey 17,’ & ‘Wake Up Dead Man,’ will get nominated with ‘Hamnet’ winning.
For Best Visual Effects I think the nominees will be ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash,’ ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps,’ ‘Jurassic World: Rebirth,’ ‘Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning,’ & ‘Wicked: For Good’ with Avatar obviously taking it. Also on the cusp will be ‘F1,’ ‘How to Train Your Dragon,’ & ‘Superman.’
Best Animated Feature is going to be between ‘Animal Farm,’ ‘Elio,’ ‘Ne Zha 2,’ ‘Tales from the Magic Garden,’ & ‘Zootopia 2.’ I’m going to be making some TikToks that will go hand in hand with this and will provide some more explanations, but I’ll have ‘Animal Farm’ take it.
For Best Original Song I’m only going to predict two songs and they are the original songs that Stephen Schwartz is writing for Elphaba & Glinda in ‘Wicked: For Good.’ I think the new Elphaba song will win, and Cynthia Erivo is actually credited as a writer so this will be how she completes her EGOT. Bam.
For Best Supporting Actress the actresses I had on the cusp were Mia Goth as Elizabeth Lavenza, ‘Frankenstein’ & Glenn Close for ‘Wake Up Dead Man.’ The five nominees will be:
Emily Blunt as Dawn Staples, ‘The Smashing Machine’
Ariana Grande as Glinda, ‘Wicked: For Good’
Nia Long as Katherine Jackson, ‘Michael’
Gwyneth Paltrow as TBD, ‘Marty Supreme’
Emily Watson as Mary Shakespeare, ‘Hamnet’
While I want so badly to give it to Grande, I think the real race will be between the Emilys and Blunt will take it.
As far as Best Supporting Actor goes, my shortlist featured Damson Idris as Noah, ‘F1’ & Sean Penn as Col. Steven Lockjaw, ‘One Battle After Another.’ My nominees will be:
Joe Alwyn as Bartholomew, ‘Hamnet’
Jonathan Bailey as Fiyero, ‘Wicked: For Good’
Colman Domingo as Joe Jackson, ‘Michael’
Adam Sandler as Adam Doherty, ‘Jay Kelly’
Jeremy Strong as Jon Landau, ‘Deliver Me From Nowhere’
And Domingo is going to take it home!
Next up is Best Actress with my honorable mentions being Julia Roberts as Alma Olsson, ‘After the Hunt’ & Emma Stone as Michelle, ‘Bugonia’ with the five nominees being:
Jessie Buckley as Agnes Shakespeare, ‘Hamnet’
Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba, ‘Wicked: For Good’
Felicity Jones as Gladys Grainier, ‘Train Dreams’
Margot Robbie as Sarah, ‘A Big Bold Beautiful Journey’
June Squibb as Eleanor Morgenstein, ‘Eleanor the Great’
Just like Grande, I want to go with Erivo, but I think Buckley will take it.
Finally we have the Best Actor race which I had a very long shortlist for. I had actors that have been Oscar staples & have films coming out this year like George Clooney as Jay Kelly in ‘Jay Kelly,’ Daniel-Day Lewis in ‘Anemone,’ Leonardo DiCaprio as Bob in ‘One Battle After Another,’ & Brad Pitt as Sonny Hayes in ‘F1.’ Some actors that I could see entering the fray are Tom Hiddleston as Chuck in ‘The Life of Chuck,’ Oscar Isaac as Dr. Frankenstein in ‘Frankenstein,’ & Robert Pattinson as Mickey Barnes in ‘Mickey 17,’ which is the wishful thinking I mentioned at the beginning. I think the real race will come down to these 5:
Timothée Chalamet as Marty Mauser, ‘Marty Supreme’
Joel Edgerton as Robert Grainier, ‘Train Dreams’
Dwayne Johnson as Mark Kerr, ‘The Smashing Machine’
Paul Mescal as William Shakespeare, ‘Hamnet’
Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen, ‘Deliver Me From Nowhere’
And of course I want Chalamet to take it, but I would bet on either Edgerton or Mescal.
Stay plugged into my socials & the blog and one year from now I’ll come back and see how I did!
